Study of urbanization trend prediction in Nanchang based on CA-Markov model

In order to promote the healthy development of Nanchang city in future and maintain virtuous cycle urban ecosystem, this paper uses CA-Markov model simulate forecast land use 2030 explore urbanization process city. Firstly, changes from 2000 2020 are described, followed by simulations for as a verification accuracy, projections based on accuracy requirements. The results show that: (1) rate expansion will continue be maintained or even gradually increase under period 2000-2020. (2) main factor change types built-up area over past two decades is socio-economic factors, with natural factors taking second place. (3) intensity reach its peak 2030, municipal districts slowdown favour Xinjian counties, which have more extensive close central area.